A Biography of US Senator Rand Paul

A Biography of US Senator Rand Paul Rand Paul is a Republican United States Senator from Kentucky with conservative-libertarian view points, and the son of former Congressman and regular presidential candidate Ron Paul. An eye doctor by trade, Paul has been married to his wife, Kelly, since 1990 and together they have three sons. While Paul has limited political history, he was a frequent campaigner for his father and also the founder of a pro-taxpayer group in Kentucky, Kentucky Taxpayers United. Electoral History: Rand Paul has a very limited political history and did not make a run for political office until 2010. Although he started as a double-digit underdog to Trey Grayson in the GOP primary, Paul took advantage of the anti-establishment sentiment within the Republican Party and was one of many long-shot outsiders to oust GOP-backed candidates. With the backing of the tea party, Paul went on to defeat Grayson 59-35%. Democrats believed they had a decent chance in the general election against Paul due to his lack of political experience. They party picked the fairly popular state Attorney General, Jack Conway. Though Conway led in early polling, Paul went on to win by a fairly comfortable 12 points. Paul was backed by most conservatives and tea party groups, including Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin. Political Positions: Rand Paul is a conservative-libertarian who is ideologically-aligned with his father, Ron Paul, on most issues. Paul is staunchly in favor of states rights on most issues and he believes that the federal government should only legislate where it is constitutionally authorized to do so. He believes hot-button issues such as gay marriage and marijuana legalization should be up for each state to decide, which also seems to be an emerging opinion within the conservative movement. Paul has also been a major figure in minority outreach and a major proponent of criminal justice reform. Rand Paul is pro-life, which is perhaps where he deviates most from the larger libertarian movement. He opposes federal funding of almost everything, including abortion, education, healthcare and other extra-constitutional issues that are meant to be handled by each individual state. The main area of concern for conservatives regarding Paul is on foreign policy. While Paul is clearly on the less interventionist and less activist scale of foreign policy, he is not quite the extremist his father was on the issue. He is strongly opposed to NSA spying programs. 2016 Presidential Run: Picking up where his father left off, Rand Paul announced a run for the 2016 GOP nomination for President. While he started off with decent numbers, his popularity took a dip as he suffered a handful of poor debate performances. While his father often occupied the wild outcast role in presidential elections, Rand Pauls more measured approach actually seems to have hurt him. The anti-establishment crowd drifted away from the Ron Paul/Rand Paul side and over to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, both who have out-maneuvered Paul. His foreign policy views have also become a liability as the Republican Party has shifted back to a more hawkish stance following the off-hands approach of the Obama White House. This has led to the occasional back-and-forth between Paul and fellow contender Marco Rubio, who has typically came out for the better. Financially, the Paul campaign has struggled and it has remained in the bottom rung of candidates. His polling has also lagged, and he has constantly struggled to remain above the debate threshold. Some Republicans have called for Paul to give up on the race and instead focus on his 2016 Senate run as they fear he is wasting valuable resources while damaging his personal popularity.

How To Get Inspiration For Your Research Projects

How To Get Inspiration For Your Research Projects How to connect for the inspiration in your writing job Writing is a creative process which requires both factual calculations of time and effort as well as a consideration of an emotional side, such as inspiration. It is easy to make a rough estimation of the time and effort required to produce your next publication. However, the lack of inspiration to write about the required subject might be an issue and can result in the writer’s block. How to connect for the inspiration? Places for inspiration Nowadays, there are many places available for getting an inspiration which writers may end up lacking in the creative process. In the academic world, the inspiration for the research can come from attending conferences or seminars, reading up to date academic publications, listening to good quality radio podcasts, checking newspapers and websites, engaging in social media and connecting with people who are equally interested in the subject that you study. Connecting with other researchers It might be very helpful to connect with those who study the same subject. Your colleagues have their own insights and they can share the valuable information with you. You can join relevant networks or you can even start your own blog or forum to publicize your research and get into a productive discussion with those who have the same interests. Seeking advice from those whose research you respect is also one of the ways to get your piece of work written effectively. Promoting your research via digital media It is important to be â€Å"online present†. If you would like to promote your research, it can be very helpful to be socially active in terms of online activity. You need to engage in the social media in order to spread the important ideas of your work to as many people as possible. Nowadays, it is unwise to underestimate the power of social media, so use it to the fullest. Digital means for working on the academic pieces of writing The number of digital aids for the effective writing is very much in abundance nowadays. Do you need to save an interesting information that you have encountered on the web? You can use one of the digital bookmarking sites such as Delicious, Pinterest, Scoop.it or Pinterest. If you need an online reference manager, Zotero, Endnote or Mendeley can be very helpful. The citations that you come across can be saved very easily with those research management tools. Physically activity as a source of inspiration Being physically fit can make a lot of difference in the creative process. Besides getting a portion of positive emotions, going for a run or exercising in the gym can give you some time to think about the subject of your research. Many successful writers say that they come up with new and unique ideas when they are in motion. Writing an academic paper is a challenging task and every academic writer has his own methods and routines which facilitate producing great pieces of work. Perhaps, experimenting is the key element in the process of creating a masterpiece. Finding your own approach to the creative writing process can help you achieve your goal of being a successful writer.

Writing assingnment Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Writing assingnment - Research Paper Example Utility maximization is a process or goal of obtaining the maximum utility from the consumption of goods and services on the basis of rational behaviour of human beings. The utility maximization is associated with the theory of decision making. Utility is an economic term which is defined as satisfaction received by individuals from the consumption of goods and services. â€Å"In 1957, Simon proposed the notion of Bounded Rationality as that property of an agent that behaves in a manner that is nearly optimal with respect to its goals as its resources will allow† (Bounded Rationality: A Response to Rational Analysis, n.d). A search refers to a psychological process related to instinct of a person which helps him to find solution for a problem. The searches can be of different types like search for job, search for home, and search for other aspects of professional and personal life of human. The decision outcome of an individual is affected by his search as the decision made depends on the search process. Decision making is considered as a major activity in any organization. Decision making is important in any activity of an organization as it helps to choose the best course of action in carrying out any task, helps to find solution to any problem or to solve conflict within an organization. If a needle to sew a jean is of 4 inch and is along with other 1000 needles of different size in a haystack, then it will take more time in seeking the needle. So a satisficer would stop looking as soon as a needle is found which can sew the jeans. Every individual satisfice in their life during those situations when time is limited. â€Å"Congressional budget decision-making in the U.S., where the usual questions considered about a given (existing) agency might typically range from whether to cut 4 or 5 percent from its budget to whether to tack on a 5 or 10% increase. Congress very seldom stops to think seriously

The Possitive and Negative Effects of the Death Penalty Essay

The Possitive and Negative Effects of the Death Penalty - Essay Example Recently, the debate over the use of the death penalty has become highly contentious, and its use as a form of punishment has decreased across the nation (Katz, Livett and Shustorovich 318). For example, most of the executions that occurred during 2002 occurred in the South of the USA, with Texas accounting for three times as many executions as those carried out in the West, Midwest and Northeast altogether. Overall, most states did not use the death penalty during 2002. Currently, the debate focuses on the availability of empirical evidence, and discourse on ethics and morality, to determine whether the death penalty should, or should not, remain as a punishment alternative. This paper aims to review the arguments of the death penalty debate. Firstly, the arguments For the use of capital punishment shall be outlined. Secondly, the arguments Against the use of the death penalty shall be presented. Finally, a conclusion shall synthesize the main arguments and make recommendations for future research. A dominant argument for the use of the death penalty is that the highest interest for a society is to prevent the deviant behavior of murder, and so the strongest punishment should be employed to deter the potential for murder to occur (Death Penalty Curricula for High School). According to this reasoning, the death of those who do commit murder will motivate other potential murderers to re-think their actions, as they will fear the loss of their own life. The arguments For the death penalty contend also, that although many studies show the results of the deterrent hypothesis to be inconclusive, that this may well be because the punishment is so infrequently used, due to the long process involved to actually carry out an execution (Katz, Livett and Shustorovich 318). It is postulated that the US states that utilize the death penalty would have much higher rates of murder if they did not use this form of punishment at all. Also, the arguments focus on the ability for capital punishme nt to deter those who are executed for murder, not only as a protection for the public, but also for other prisoners and staff who work within the prison system (Death Penalty Curricula for High School). Ultimately, it is contended, as a form of permanent incapacitation the death penalty aids in crime prevention and so the protection of society. An in-depth study by Isaac Ehlich is often pointed to as providing proof that murder rates change when there is the likelihood of losing one's life for the crime (Ehlich [a] 32). Ehlich concluded that as many as 7 or 8 murders were prevented through the use of capital punishment in the USA, during the period from 1933 to 1967 (Ehlich [b] 15). Furthermore, to support Ehlich's findings, a study in England by Wolpin found that for every execution, there was a reduction, on average, of four other

Credit Risk Dissertation

Credit Risk Dissertation CREDIT RISK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The future of banking will undoubtedly rest on risk management dynamics. Only those banks that have efficient risk management system will survive in the market in the long run. The major cause of serious banking problems over the years continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to deterioration in the credit standing of a banks counterparties. Credit risk is the oldest and biggest risk that bank, by virtue of its very nature of business, inherits. This has however, acquired a greater significance in the recent past for various reasons. There have been many traditional approaches to measure credit risk like logit, linear probability model but with passage of time new approaches have been developed like the Credit+, KMV Model. Basel I Accord was introduced in 1988 to have a framework for regulatory capital for banks but the â€Å"one size fit all† approach led to a shift, to a new and comprehensive approach -Basel II which adopts a three pillar approach to risk management. Banks use a number of techniques to mitigate the credit risks to which they are exposed. RBI has prescribed adoption of comprehensive approach for the purpose of CRM which allows fuller offset of security of collateral against exposures by effectively reducing the exposure amount by the value ascribed to the collateral. In this study, a leading nationalized bank is taken to study the steps taken by the bank to implement the Basel- II Accord and the entire framework developed for credit risk management. The bank under the study uses the credit scoring method to evaluate the credit risk involved in various loans/advances. The bank has set up special software to evaluate each case under various parameters and a monitoring system to continuously track each assets performance in accordance with the evaluation parameters. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Rationale Credit Risk Management in todays deregulated market is a big challenge. Increased market volatility has brought with it the need for smart analysis and specialized applications in managing credit risk. A well defined policy framework is needed to help the operating staff identify the risk-event, assign a probability to each, quantify the likely loss, assess the acceptability of the exposure, price the risk and monitor them right to the point where they are paid off. Generally, Banks in India evaluate a proposal through the traditional tools of project financing, computing maximum permissible limits, assessing management capabilities and prescribing a ceiling for an industry exposure. As banks move in to a new high powered world of financial operations and trading, with new risks, the need is felt for more sophisticated and versatile instruments for risk assessment, monitoring and controlling risk exposures. It is, therefore, time that banks managements equip them fully to grapple with the demands of creating tools and systems capable of assessing, monitoring and controlling risk exposures in a more scientific manner. According to an estimate, Credit Risk takes about 70% and 30% remaining is shared between the other two primary risks, namely Market risk (change in the market price and operational risk i.e., failure of internal controls, etc.). Quality borrowers (Tier-I borrowers) were able to access the capital market directly without going through the debt route. Hence, the credit route is now more open to lesser mortals (Tier-II borrowers). With margin levels going down, banks are unable to absorb the level of loan losses. Even in banks which regularly fine-tune credit policies and streamline credit processes, it is a real challenge for credit risk managers to correctly identify pockets of risk concentration, quantify extent of risk carried, identify opportunities for diversification and balance the risk-return trade-off in their credit portfolio. The management of banks should strive to embrace the notion of ‘uncertainty and risk in their balance sheet and instill the need for approaching credit administration from a ‘risk-perspective across the system by placing well drafted strategies in the hands of the operating staff with due material support for its successful implementation. There is a need for Strategic approach to Credit Risk Management (CRM) in Indian Commercial Banks, particularly in view of; (1) Higher NPAs level in comparison with global benchmark (2) RBI s stipulation about dividend distribution by the banks (3) Revised NPAs level and CAR norms (4) New Basel Capital Accord (Basel -II) revolution 1.2 OBJECTIVES To understand the conceptual framework for credit risk. To understand credit risk under the Basel II Accord. To analyze the credit risk management practices in a Leading Nationalised Bank 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research Design: In order to have more comprehensive definition of the problem and to become familiar with the problems, an extensive literature survey was done to collect secondary data for the location of the various variables, probably contemporary issues and the clarity of concepts. Data Collection Techniques: The data collection technique used is interviewing. Data has been collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary Data: is collected by making personal visits to the bank. Secondary Data: The details have been collected from research papers, working papers, white papers published by various agencies like ICRA, FICCI, IBA etc; articles from the internet and various journals. 1.4 LITERATURE REVIEW * Merton (1974) has applied options pricing model as a technology to evaluate the credit risk of enterprise, it has been drawn a lot of attention from western academic and business circles.Mertons Model is the theoretical foundation of structural models. Mertons model is not only based on a strict and comprehensive theory but also used market information stock price as an important variance toevaluate the credit risk.This makes credit risk to be a real-time monitored at a much higher frequency.This advantage has made it widely applied by the academic and business circle for a long time. Other Structural Models try to refine the original Merton Framework by removing one or more of unrealistic assumptions. * Black and Cox (1976) postulate that defaults occur as soon as firms asset value falls below a certain threshold. In contrast to the Merton approach, default can occur at any time. The paper by Black and Cox (1976) is the first of the so-called First Passage Models (FPM). First passage models specify default as the first time the firms asset value hits a lower barrier, allowing default to take place at any time. When the default barrier is exogenously fixed, as in Black and Cox (1976) and Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), it acts as a safety covenant to protect bondholders. Black and Cox introduce the possibility of more complex capital structures, with subordinated debt. * Geske (1977) introduces interest-paying debt to the Merton model. * Vasicek (1984) introduces the distinction between short and long term liabilities which now represents a distinctive feature of the KMV model. Under these models, all the relevant credit risk elements, including default and recovery at default, are a function of the structural characteristics of the firm: asset levels, asset volatility (business risk) and leverage (financial risk). * Kim, Ramaswamy and Sundaresan (1993) have suggested an alternative approach which still adopts the original Merton framework as far as the default process is concerned but, at the same time, removes one of the unrealistic assumptions of the Merton model; namely, that default can occur only at maturity of the debt when the firms assets are no longer sufficient to cover debt obligations. Instead, it is assumed that default may occur anytime between the issuance and maturity of the debt and that default is triggered when the value of the firms assets reaches a lower threshold level. In this model, the RR in the event of default is exogenous and independent from the firms asset value. It is generally defined as a fixed ratio of the outstanding debt value and is therefore independent from the PD. The attempt to overcome the shortcomings of structural-form models gave rise to reduced-form models. Unlike structural-form models, reduced-form models do not condition default on the value of the firm, and parameters related to the firms value need not be estimated to implement them. * Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) assumed that, at default, a bond would have a market value equal to an exogenously specified fraction of an otherwise equivalent default-free bond. * Duffie and Singleton (1999) followed with a model that, when market value at default (i.e. RR) is exogenously specified, allows for closed-form solutions for the term-structure of credit spreads. * Zhou (2001) attempt to combine the advantages of structural-form models a clear economic mechanism behind the default process, and the ones of reduced- form models unpredictability of default. This model links RRs to the firm value at default so that the variation in RRs is endogenously generated and the correlation between RRs and credit ratings reported first in Altman (1989) and Gupton, Gates and Carty (2000) is justified. Lately portfolio view on credit losses has emerged by recognising that changes in credit quality tend to comove over the business cycle and that one can diversify part of the credit risk by a clever composition of the loan portfolio across regions, industries and countries. Thus in order to assess the credit risk of a loan portfolio, a bank must not only investigate the creditworthiness of its customers, but also identify the concentration risks and possible comovements of risk factors in the portfolio. * CreditMetrics by Gupton et al (1997) was publicized in 1997 by JP Morgan. Its methodology is based on probability of moving from one credit quality to another within a given time horizon (credit migration analysis). The estimation of the portfolio Value-at-Risk due to Credit (Credit-VaR) through CreditMetrics A rating system with probabilities of migrating from one credit quality to another over a given time horizon (transition matrix) is the key component of the credit-VaR proposed by JP Morgan. The specified credit risk horizon is usually one year. A rating system with probabilities of migrating from one credit quality to another over a given time horizon (transition matrix) is the key component of the credit-VaR proposed by JP Morgan. The specified credit risk horizon is usually one year. * (Sy, 2007), states that the primary cause of credit default is loan delinquency due to insufficient liquidity or cash flow to service debt obligations. In the case of unsecured loans, we assume delinquency is a necessary and sufficient condition. In the case of collateralized loans, delinquency is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, because the borrower may be able to refinance the loan from positive equity or net assets to prevent default. In general, for secured loans, both delinquency and insolvency are assumed necessary and sufficient for credit default. CHAPTER 2 THEORECTICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 CREDIT RISK: Credit risk is risk due to uncertainty in a counterpartys (also called an obligors or credits) ability to meet its obligations. Because there are many types of counterparties—from individuals to sovereign governments—and many different types of obligations—from auto loans to derivatives transactions—credit risk takes many forms. Institutions manage it in different ways. Although credit losses naturally fluctuate over time and with economic conditions, there is (ceteris paribus) a statistically measured, long-run average loss level. The losses can be divided into two categories i.e. expected losses (EL) and unexpected losses (UL). EL is based on three parameters:  ·Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚   The likelihood that default will take place over a specified time horizon (probability of default or PD)  · â‚ ¬Ã‚  The amount owned by the counterparty at the moment of default (exposure at default or EAD)  ·Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚   The fraction of the exposure, net of any recoveries, which will be lost following a default event (loss given default or LGD). EL = PD x EAD x LGD EL can be aggregated at various different levels (e.g. individual loan or entire credit portfolio), although it is typically calculated at the transaction level; it is normally mentioned either as an absolute amount or as a percentage of transaction size. It is also both customer- and facility-specific, since two different loans to the same customer can have a very different EL due to differences in EAD and/or LGD. It is important to note that EL (or, for that matter, credit quality) does not by itself constitute risk; if losses always equaled their expected levels, then there would be no uncertainty. Instead, EL should be viewed as an anticipated â€Å"cost of doing business† and should therefore be incorporated in loan pricing and ex ante provisioning. Credit risk, in fact, arises from variations in the actual loss levels, which give rise to the so-called unexpected loss (UL). Statistically speaking, UL is simply the standard deviation of EL. UL= ÏÆ' (EL) = ÏÆ' (PD*EAD*LGD) Once the bank- level credit loss distribution is constructed, credit economic capital is simply determined by the banks tolerance for credit risk, i.e. the bank needs to decide how much capital it wants to hold in order to avoid insolvency because of unexpected credit losses over the next year. A safer bank must have sufficient capital to withstand losses that are larger and rarer, i.e. they extend further out in the loss distribution tail. In practice, therefore, the choice of confidence interval in the loss distribution corresponds to the banks target credit rating (and related default probability) for its own debt. As Figure below shows, economic capital is the difference between EL and the selected confidence interval at the tail of the loss distribution; it is equal to a multiple K (often referred to as the capital multiplier) of the standard deviation of EL (i.e. UL). The shape of the loss distribution can vary considerably depending on product type and borrower credit quality. For example, high quality (low PD) borrowers tend to have proportionally less EL per unit of capital charged, meaning that K is higher and the shape of their loss distribution is more skewed (and vice versa). Credit risk may be in the following forms: * In case of the direct lending * In case of the guarantees and the letter of the credit * In case of the treasury operations * In case of the securities trading businesses * In case of the cross border exposure 2.2 The need for Credit Risk Rating: The need for Credit Risk Rating has arisen due to the following: 1. With dismantling of State control, deregulation, globalisation and allowing things to shape on the basis of market conditions, Indian Industry and Indian Banking face new risks and challenges. Competition results in the survival of the fittest. It is therefore necessary to identify these risks, measure them, monitor and control them. 2. It provides a basis for Credit Risk Pricing i.e. fixation of rate of interest on lending to different borrowers based on their credit risk rating thereby balancing Risk Reward for the Bank. 3. The Basel Accord and consequent Reserve Bank of India guidelines requires that the level of capital required to be maintained by the Bank will be in proportion to the risk of the loan in Banks Books for measurement of which proper Credit Risk Rating system is necessary. 4. The credit risk rating can be a Risk Management tool for prospecting fresh borrowers in addition to monitoring the weaker parameters and taking remedial action. The types of Risks Captured in the Banks Credit Risk Rating Model The Credit Risk Rating Model provides a framework to evaluate the risk emanating from following main risk categorizes/risk areas: * Industry risk * Business risk * Financial risk * Management risk * Facility risk * Project risk 2.3 WHY CREDIT RISK MEASUREMENT? In recent years, a revolution is brewing in risk as it is both managed and measured. There are seven reasons as to why certain surge in interest: 1. Structural increase in bankruptcies: Although the most recent recession hit at different time in different countries, most statistics show a significant increase in bankruptcies, compared to prior recession. To the extent that there has been a permanent or structural increase in bankruptcies worldwide- due to increase in the global competition- accurate credit analysis become even more important today than in past. 2. Disintermediation: As capital markets have expanded and become accessible to small and mid sized firms, the firms or borrowers â€Å"left behind† to raise funds from banks and other traditional financial institutions (FIs) are likely to be smaller and to have weaker credit ratings. Capital market growth has produced â€Å"a winners† curse effect on the portfolios of traditional FIs. 3. More Competitive Margins: Almost paradoxically, despite the decline in the average quality of loans, interest margins or spreads, especially in wholesale loan markets have become very thin. In short, the risk-return trade off from lending has gotten worse. A number of reasons can be cited, but an important factor has been the enhanced competition for low quality borrowers especially from finance companies, much of whose lending activity has been concentrated at the higher risk/lower quality end of the market. 4. Declining and Volatile Values of Collateral: Concurrent with the recent Asian and Russian debt crisis in well developed countries such as Switzerland and Japan have shown that property and real assets value are very hard to predict, and to realize through liquidation. The weaker (and more uncertain) collateral values are, the riskier the lending is likely to be. Indeed the current concerns about deflation worldwide have been accentuated the concerns about the value of real assets such as property and other physical assets. 5. The Growth Of Off- Balance Sheet Derivatives: In many of the very large U.S. banks, the notional value of the off-balance-sheet exposure to instruments such as over-the-counter (OTC) swaps and forwards is more than 10 times the size of their loan books. Indeed the growth in credit risk off the balance sheet was one of the main reasons for the introduction, by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), of risk based capital requirements in 1993. Under the BIS system, the banks have to hold a capital requirement based on the mark- to- market current values of each OTC Derivative contract plus an add on for potential future exposure. 6. Technology Advances in computer systems and related advances in information technology have given banks and FIs the opportunity to test high powered modeling techniques. A survey conducted by International Swaps and Derivatives Association and the Institute of International Finance in 2000 found that survey participants (consisting of 25 commercial banks from 10 countries, with varying size and specialties) used commercial and internal databases to assess the credit risk on rated and unrated commercial, retail and mortgage loans. 7. The BIS Risk-Based Capital Requirements Despite the importance of above six reasons, probably the greatest incentive for banks to develop new credit risk models has been dissatisfaction with the BIS and central banks post-1992 imposition of capital requirements on loans. The current BIS approach has been described as a ‘one size fits all policy, irrespective of the size of loan, its maturity, and most importantly, the credit quality of the borrowing party. Much of the current interest in fine tuning credit risk measurement models has been fueled by the proposed BIS New Capital Accord (or so Called BIS II) which would more closely link capital charges to the credit risk exposure to retail, commercial, sovereign and interbank credits. Chapter- 3 Credit Risk Approaches and Pricing 3.1 CREDIT RISK MEASUREMENT APPROACHES: 1. CREDIT SCORING MODELS Credit Scoring Models use data on observed borrower characteristics to calculate the probability of default or to sort borrowers into different default risk classes. By selecting and combining different economic and financial borrower characteristics, a bank manager may be able to numerically establish which factors are important in explaining default risk, evaluate the relative degree or importance of these factors, improve the pricing of default risk, be better able to screen out bad loan applicants and be in a better position to calculate any reserve needed to meet expected future loan losses. To employ credit scoring model in this manner, the manager must identify objective economic and financial measures of risk for any particular class of borrower. For consumer debt, the objective characteristics in a credit -scoring model might include income, assets, age occupation and location. For corporate debt, financial ratios such as debt-equity ratio are usually key factors. After data are identified, a statistical technique quantifies or scores the default risk probability or default risk classification. Credit scoring models include three broad types: (1) linear probability models, (2) logit model and (3) linear discriminant model. LINEAR PROBABILITY MODEL: The linear probability model uses past data, such as accounting ratios, as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans. The relative importance of the factors used in explaining the past repayment performance then forecasts repayment probabilities on new loans; that is can be used for assessing the probability of repayment. Briefly we divide old loans (i) into two observational groups; those that defaulted (Zi = 1) and those that did not default (Zi = 0). Then we relate these observations by linear regression to s set of j casual variables (Xij) that reflects quantative information about the ith borrower, such as leverage or earnings. We estimate the model by linear regression of: Zi = ÃŽ £ÃŽ ²jXij + error Where ÃŽ ²j is the estimated importance of the jth variable in explaining past repayment experience. If we then take these estimated ÃŽ ²js and multiply them by the observed Xij for a prospective borrower, we can derive an expected value of Zi for the probability of repayment on the loan. LOGIT MODEL: The objective of the typical credit or loan review model is to replicate judgments made by loan officers, credit managers or bank examiners. If an accurate model could be developed, then it could be used as a tool for reviewing and classifying future credit risks. Chesser (1974) developed a model to predict noncompliance with the customers original loan arrangement, where non-compliance is defined to include not only default but any workout that may have been arranged resulting in a settlement of the loan less favorable to the tender than the original agreement. Chessers model, which was based on a technique called logit analysis, consisted of the following six variables. X1 = (Cash + Marketable Securities)/Total Assets X2 = Net Sales/(Cash + Marketable Securities) X3 = EBIT/Total Assets X4 = Total Debt/Total Assets X5 = Total Assets/ Net Worth X6 = Working Capital/Net Sales The estimated coefficients, including an intercept term, are Y = -2.0434 -5.24X1 + 0.0053X2 6.6507X3 + 4.4009X4 0.0791X5 0.1020X6 Chessers classification rule for above equation is If P> 50, assign to the non compliance group and If P≠¤50, assign to the compliance group. LINEAR DISCRIMINANT MODEL: While linear probability and logit models project a value foe the expected probability of default if a loan is made, discriminant models divide borrowers into high or default risk classes contingent on their observed characteristic (X). Altmans Z-score model is an application of multivariate Discriminant analysis in credit risk modeling. Financial ratios measuring probability, liquidity and solvency appeared to have significant discriminating power to separate the firm that fails to service its debt from the firms that do not. These ratios are weighted to produce a measure (credit risk score) that can be used as a metric to differentiate the bad firms from the set of good ones. Discriminant analysis is a multivariate statistical technique that analyzes a set of variables in order to differentiate two or more groups by minimizing the within-group variance and maximizing the between group variance simultaneously. Variables taken were: X1::Working Capital/ Total Asset X2: Retained Earning/ Total Asset X3: Earning before interest and taxes/ Total Asset X4: Market value of equity/ Book value of total Liabilities X5: Sales/Total Asset The original Z-score model was revised and modified several times in order to find the scoring model more specific to a particular class of firm. These resulted in the private firms Z-score model, non manufacturers Z-score model and Emerging Market Scoring (EMS) model. 3.2 New Approaches TERM STRUCTURE DERIVATION OF CREDIT RISK: One market based method of assessing credit risk exposure and default probabilities is to analyze the risk premium inherent in the current structure of yields on corporate debt or loans to similar risk-rated borrowers. Rating agencies categorize corporate bond issuers into at least seven major classes according to perceived credit quality. The first four ratings AAA, AA, A and BBB indicate investment quality borrowers. MORTALITY RATE APPROACH: Rather than extracting expected default rates from the current term structure of interest rates, the FI manager may analyze the historic or past default experience the mortality rates, of bonds and loans of a similar quality. Here p1is the probability of a grade B bond surviving the first year of its issue; thus 1 p1 is the marginal mortality rate, or the probability of the bond or loan dying or defaulting in the first year while p2 is the probability of the loan surviving in the second year and that it has not defaulted in the first year, 1-p2 is the marginal mortality rate for the second year. Thus, for each grade of corporate buyer quality, a marginal mortality rate (MMR) curve can show the historical default rate in any specific quality class in each year after issue. RAROC MODELS: Based on a banks risk-bearing capacity and its risk strategy, it is thus necessary — bearing in mind the banks strategic orientation — to find a method for the efficient allocation of capital to the banks individual siness areas, i.e. to define indicators that are suitable for balancing risk and return in a sensible manner. Indicators fulfilling this requirement are often referred to as risk adjusted performance measures (RAPM). RARORAC (risk adjusted return on risk adjusted capital, usually abbreviated as the most commonly found forms are RORAC (return on risk adjusted capital), Net income is taken to mean income minus refinancing cost, operating cost, and expected losses. It should now be the banks goal to maximize a RAPM indicator for the bank as a whole, e.g. RORAC, taking into account the correlation between individual transactions. Certain constraints such as volume restrictions due to a potential lack of liquidity and the maintenance of solvency based on economic and regulatory capital have to be observed in reaching this goal. From an organizational point of view, value and risk management should therefore be linked as closely as possible at all organizational levels. OPTION MODELS OF DEFAULT RISK (kmv model): KMV Corporation has developed a credit risk model that uses information on the stock prices and the capital structure of the firm to estimate its default probability. The starting point of the model is the proposition that a firm will default only if its asset value falls below a certain level, which is function of its liability. It estimates the asset value of the firm and its asset volatility from the market value of equity and the debt structure in the option theoretic framework. The resultant probability is called Expected default Frequency (EDF). In summary, EDF is calculated in the following three steps: i) Estimation of asset value and volatility from the equity value and volatility of equity return. ii) Calculation of distance from default iii) Calculation of expected default frequency Credit METRICS: It provides a method for estimating the distribution of the value of the assets n a portfolio subject to change in the credit quality of individual borrower. A portfolio consists of different stand-alone assets, defined by a stream of future cash flows. Each asset has a distribution over the possible range of future rating class. Starting from its initial rating, an asset may end up in ay one of the possible rating categories. Each rating category has a different credit spread, which will be used to discount the future cash flows. Moreover, the assets are correlated among themselves depending on the industry they belong to. It is assumed that the asset returns are normally distributed and change in the asset returns causes the change in the rating category in future. Finally, the simulation technique is used to estimate the value distribution of the assets. A number of scenario are generated from a multivariate normal distribution, which is defined by the appropriate credit spread, t he future value of asset is estimated. CREDIT Risk+: CreditRisk+, introduced by Credit Suisse Financial Products (CSFP), is a model of default risk. Each asset has only two possible end-of-period states: default and non-default. In the event of default, the lender recovers a fixed proportion of the total expense. The default rate is considered as a continuous random variable. It does not try to estimate default correlation directly. Here, the default correlation is assumed to be determined by a set of risk factors. Conditional on these risk factors, default of each obligator follows a Bernoulli distribution. To get unconditional probability generating function for the number of defaults, it assumes that the risk factors are independently gamma distributed random variables. The final step in Creditrisk+ is to obtain the probability generating function for losses. Conditional on the number of default events, the losses are entirely determined by the exposure and recovery rate. Thus, the distribution of asset can be estimated from the fol lowing input data: i) Exposure of individual asset ii) Expected default rate iii) Default ate volatilities iv) Recovery rate given default 3.3 CREDIT PRICING Pricing of the credit is essential for the survival of enterprises relying on credit assets, because the benefits derived from extending credit should surpass the cost. With the introduction of capital adequacy norms, the credit risk is linked to the capital-minimum 8% capital adequacy. Consequently, higher capital is required to be deployed if more credit risks are underwritten. The decision (a) whether to maximize the returns on possible credit assets with the existing capital or (b) raise more capital to do more business invariably depends upon p Credit Risk Dissertation Credit Risk Dissertation CREDIT RISK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The future of banking will undoubtedly rest on risk management dynamics. Only those banks that have efficient risk management system will survive in the market in the long run. The major cause of serious banking problems over the years continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to deterioration in the credit standing of a banks counterparties. Credit risk is the oldest and biggest risk that bank, by virtue of its very nature of business, inherits. This has however, acquired a greater significance in the recent past for various reasons. There have been many traditional approaches to measure credit risk like logit, linear probability model but with passage of time new approaches have been developed like the Credit+, KMV Model. Basel I Accord was introduced in 1988 to have a framework for regulatory capital for banks but the â€Å"one size fit all† approach led to a shift, to a new and comprehensive approach -Basel II which adopts a three pillar approach to risk management. Banks use a number of techniques to mitigate the credit risks to which they are exposed. RBI has prescribed adoption of comprehensive approach for the purpose of CRM which allows fuller offset of security of collateral against exposures by effectively reducing the exposure amount by the value ascribed to the collateral. In this study, a leading nationalized bank is taken to study the steps taken by the bank to implement the Basel- II Accord and the entire framework developed for credit risk management. The bank under the study uses the credit scoring method to evaluate the credit risk involved in various loans/advances. The bank has set up special software to evaluate each case under various parameters and a monitoring system to continuously track each assets performance in accordance with the evaluation parameters. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Rationale Credit Risk Management in todays deregulated market is a big challenge. Increased market volatility has brought with it the need for smart analysis and specialized applications in managing credit risk. A well defined policy framework is needed to help the operating staff identify the risk-event, assign a probability to each, quantify the likely loss, assess the acceptability of the exposure, price the risk and monitor them right to the point where they are paid off. Generally, Banks in India evaluate a proposal through the traditional tools of project financing, computing maximum permissible limits, assessing management capabilities and prescribing a ceiling for an industry exposure. As banks move in to a new high powered world of financial operations and trading, with new risks, the need is felt for more sophisticated and versatile instruments for risk assessment, monitoring and controlling risk exposures. It is, therefore, time that banks managements equip them fully to grapple with the demands of creating tools and systems capable of assessing, monitoring and controlling risk exposures in a more scientific manner. According to an estimate, Credit Risk takes about 70% and 30% remaining is shared between the other two primary risks, namely Market risk (change in the market price and operational risk i.e., failure of internal controls, etc.). Quality borrowers (Tier-I borrowers) were able to access the capital market directly without going through the debt route. Hence, the credit route is now more open to lesser mortals (Tier-II borrowers). With margin levels going down, banks are unable to absorb the level of loan losses. Even in banks which regularly fine-tune credit policies and streamline credit processes, it is a real challenge for credit risk managers to correctly identify pockets of risk concentration, quantify extent of risk carried, identify opportunities for diversification and balance the risk-return trade-off in their credit portfolio. The management of banks should strive to embrace the notion of ‘uncertainty and risk in their balance sheet and instill the need for approaching credit administration from a ‘risk-perspective across the system by placing well drafted strategies in the hands of the operating staff with due material support for its successful implementation. There is a need for Strategic approach to Credit Risk Management (CRM) in Indian Commercial Banks, particularly in view of; (1) Higher NPAs level in comparison with global benchmark (2) RBI s stipulation about dividend distribution by the banks (3) Revised NPAs level and CAR norms (4) New Basel Capital Accord (Basel -II) revolution 1.2 OBJECTIVES To understand the conceptual framework for credit risk. To understand credit risk under the Basel II Accord. To analyze the credit risk management practices in a Leading Nationalised Bank 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research Design: In order to have more comprehensive definition of the problem and to become familiar with the problems, an extensive literature survey was done to collect secondary data for the location of the various variables, probably contemporary issues and the clarity of concepts. Data Collection Techniques: The data collection technique used is interviewing. Data has been collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary Data: is collected by making personal visits to the bank. Secondary Data: The details have been collected from research papers, working papers, white papers published by various agencies like ICRA, FICCI, IBA etc; articles from the internet and various journals. 1.4 LITERATURE REVIEW * Merton (1974) has applied options pricing model as a technology to evaluate the credit risk of enterprise, it has been drawn a lot of attention from western academic and business circles.Mertons Model is the theoretical foundation of structural models. Mertons model is not only based on a strict and comprehensive theory but also used market information stock price as an important variance toevaluate the credit risk.This makes credit risk to be a real-time monitored at a much higher frequency.This advantage has made it widely applied by the academic and business circle for a long time. Other Structural Models try to refine the original Merton Framework by removing one or more of unrealistic assumptions. * Black and Cox (1976) postulate that defaults occur as soon as firms asset value falls below a certain threshold. In contrast to the Merton approach, default can occur at any time. The paper by Black and Cox (1976) is the first of the so-called First Passage Models (FPM). First passage models specify default as the first time the firms asset value hits a lower barrier, allowing default to take place at any time. When the default barrier is exogenously fixed, as in Black and Cox (1976) and Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), it acts as a safety covenant to protect bondholders. Black and Cox introduce the possibility of more complex capital structures, with subordinated debt. * Geske (1977) introduces interest-paying debt to the Merton model. * Vasicek (1984) introduces the distinction between short and long term liabilities which now represents a distinctive feature of the KMV model. Under these models, all the relevant credit risk elements, including default and recovery at default, are a function of the structural characteristics of the firm: asset levels, asset volatility (business risk) and leverage (financial risk). * Kim, Ramaswamy and Sundaresan (1993) have suggested an alternative approach which still adopts the original Merton framework as far as the default process is concerned but, at the same time, removes one of the unrealistic assumptions of the Merton model; namely, that default can occur only at maturity of the debt when the firms assets are no longer sufficient to cover debt obligations. Instead, it is assumed that default may occur anytime between the issuance and maturity of the debt and that default is triggered when the value of the firms assets reaches a lower threshold level. In this model, the RR in the event of default is exogenous and independent from the firms asset value. It is generally defined as a fixed ratio of the outstanding debt value and is therefore independent from the PD. The attempt to overcome the shortcomings of structural-form models gave rise to reduced-form models. Unlike structural-form models, reduced-form models do not condition default on the value of the firm, and parameters related to the firms value need not be estimated to implement them. * Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) assumed that, at default, a bond would have a market value equal to an exogenously specified fraction of an otherwise equivalent default-free bond. * Duffie and Singleton (1999) followed with a model that, when market value at default (i.e. RR) is exogenously specified, allows for closed-form solutions for the term-structure of credit spreads. * Zhou (2001) attempt to combine the advantages of structural-form models a clear economic mechanism behind the default process, and the ones of reduced- form models unpredictability of default. This model links RRs to the firm value at default so that the variation in RRs is endogenously generated and the correlation between RRs and credit ratings reported first in Altman (1989) and Gupton, Gates and Carty (2000) is justified. Lately portfolio view on credit losses has emerged by recognising that changes in credit quality tend to comove over the business cycle and that one can diversify part of the credit risk by a clever composition of the loan portfolio across regions, industries and countries. Thus in order to assess the credit risk of a loan portfolio, a bank must not only investigate the creditworthiness of its customers, but also identify the concentration risks and possible comovements of risk factors in the portfolio. * CreditMetrics by Gupton et al (1997) was publicized in 1997 by JP Morgan. Its methodology is based on probability of moving from one credit quality to another within a given time horizon (credit migration analysis). The estimation of the portfolio Value-at-Risk due to Credit (Credit-VaR) through CreditMetrics A rating system with probabilities of migrating from one credit quality to another over a given time horizon (transition matrix) is the key component of the credit-VaR proposed by JP Morgan. The specified credit risk horizon is usually one year. A rating system with probabilities of migrating from one credit quality to another over a given time horizon (transition matrix) is the key component of the credit-VaR proposed by JP Morgan. The specified credit risk horizon is usually one year. * (Sy, 2007), states that the primary cause of credit default is loan delinquency due to insufficient liquidity or cash flow to service debt obligations. In the case of unsecured loans, we assume delinquency is a necessary and sufficient condition. In the case of collateralized loans, delinquency is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, because the borrower may be able to refinance the loan from positive equity or net assets to prevent default. In general, for secured loans, both delinquency and insolvency are assumed necessary and sufficient for credit default. CHAPTER 2 THEORECTICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 CREDIT RISK: Credit risk is risk due to uncertainty in a counterpartys (also called an obligors or credits) ability to meet its obligations. Because there are many types of counterparties—from individuals to sovereign governments—and many different types of obligations—from auto loans to derivatives transactions—credit risk takes many forms. Institutions manage it in different ways. Although credit losses naturally fluctuate over time and with economic conditions, there is (ceteris paribus) a statistically measured, long-run average loss level. The losses can be divided into two categories i.e. expected losses (EL) and unexpected losses (UL). EL is based on three parameters:  ·Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚   The likelihood that default will take place over a specified time horizon (probability of default or PD)  · â‚ ¬Ã‚  The amount owned by the counterparty at the moment of default (exposure at default or EAD)  ·Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚   The fraction of the exposure, net of any recoveries, which will be lost following a default event (loss given default or LGD). EL = PD x EAD x LGD EL can be aggregated at various different levels (e.g. individual loan or entire credit portfolio), although it is typically calculated at the transaction level; it is normally mentioned either as an absolute amount or as a percentage of transaction size. It is also both customer- and facility-specific, since two different loans to the same customer can have a very different EL due to differences in EAD and/or LGD. It is important to note that EL (or, for that matter, credit quality) does not by itself constitute risk; if losses always equaled their expected levels, then there would be no uncertainty. Instead, EL should be viewed as an anticipated â€Å"cost of doing business† and should therefore be incorporated in loan pricing and ex ante provisioning. Credit risk, in fact, arises from variations in the actual loss levels, which give rise to the so-called unexpected loss (UL). Statistically speaking, UL is simply the standard deviation of EL. UL= ÏÆ' (EL) = ÏÆ' (PD*EAD*LGD) Once the bank- level credit loss distribution is constructed, credit economic capital is simply determined by the banks tolerance for credit risk, i.e. the bank needs to decide how much capital it wants to hold in order to avoid insolvency because of unexpected credit losses over the next year. A safer bank must have sufficient capital to withstand losses that are larger and rarer, i.e. they extend further out in the loss distribution tail. In practice, therefore, the choice of confidence interval in the loss distribution corresponds to the banks target credit rating (and related default probability) for its own debt. As Figure below shows, economic capital is the difference between EL and the selected confidence interval at the tail of the loss distribution; it is equal to a multiple K (often referred to as the capital multiplier) of the standard deviation of EL (i.e. UL). The shape of the loss distribution can vary considerably depending on product type and borrower credit quality. For example, high quality (low PD) borrowers tend to have proportionally less EL per unit of capital charged, meaning that K is higher and the shape of their loss distribution is more skewed (and vice versa). Credit risk may be in the following forms: * In case of the direct lending * In case of the guarantees and the letter of the credit * In case of the treasury operations * In case of the securities trading businesses * In case of the cross border exposure 2.2 The need for Credit Risk Rating: The need for Credit Risk Rating has arisen due to the following: 1. With dismantling of State control, deregulation, globalisation and allowing things to shape on the basis of market conditions, Indian Industry and Indian Banking face new risks and challenges. Competition results in the survival of the fittest. It is therefore necessary to identify these risks, measure them, monitor and control them. 2. It provides a basis for Credit Risk Pricing i.e. fixation of rate of interest on lending to different borrowers based on their credit risk rating thereby balancing Risk Reward for the Bank. 3. The Basel Accord and consequent Reserve Bank of India guidelines requires that the level of capital required to be maintained by the Bank will be in proportion to the risk of the loan in Banks Books for measurement of which proper Credit Risk Rating system is necessary. 4. The credit risk rating can be a Risk Management tool for prospecting fresh borrowers in addition to monitoring the weaker parameters and taking remedial action. The types of Risks Captured in the Banks Credit Risk Rating Model The Credit Risk Rating Model provides a framework to evaluate the risk emanating from following main risk categorizes/risk areas: * Industry risk * Business risk * Financial risk * Management risk * Facility risk * Project risk 2.3 WHY CREDIT RISK MEASUREMENT? In recent years, a revolution is brewing in risk as it is both managed and measured. There are seven reasons as to why certain surge in interest: 1. Structural increase in bankruptcies: Although the most recent recession hit at different time in different countries, most statistics show a significant increase in bankruptcies, compared to prior recession. To the extent that there has been a permanent or structural increase in bankruptcies worldwide- due to increase in the global competition- accurate credit analysis become even more important today than in past. 2. Disintermediation: As capital markets have expanded and become accessible to small and mid sized firms, the firms or borrowers â€Å"left behind† to raise funds from banks and other traditional financial institutions (FIs) are likely to be smaller and to have weaker credit ratings. Capital market growth has produced â€Å"a winners† curse effect on the portfolios of traditional FIs. 3. More Competitive Margins: Almost paradoxically, despite the decline in the average quality of loans, interest margins or spreads, especially in wholesale loan markets have become very thin. In short, the risk-return trade off from lending has gotten worse. A number of reasons can be cited, but an important factor has been the enhanced competition for low quality borrowers especially from finance companies, much of whose lending activity has been concentrated at the higher risk/lower quality end of the market. 4. Declining and Volatile Values of Collateral: Concurrent with the recent Asian and Russian debt crisis in well developed countries such as Switzerland and Japan have shown that property and real assets value are very hard to predict, and to realize through liquidation. The weaker (and more uncertain) collateral values are, the riskier the lending is likely to be. Indeed the current concerns about deflation worldwide have been accentuated the concerns about the value of real assets such as property and other physical assets. 5. The Growth Of Off- Balance Sheet Derivatives: In many of the very large U.S. banks, the notional value of the off-balance-sheet exposure to instruments such as over-the-counter (OTC) swaps and forwards is more than 10 times the size of their loan books. Indeed the growth in credit risk off the balance sheet was one of the main reasons for the introduction, by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), of risk based capital requirements in 1993. Under the BIS system, the banks have to hold a capital requirement based on the mark- to- market current values of each OTC Derivative contract plus an add on for potential future exposure. 6. Technology Advances in computer systems and related advances in information technology have given banks and FIs the opportunity to test high powered modeling techniques. A survey conducted by International Swaps and Derivatives Association and the Institute of International Finance in 2000 found that survey participants (consisting of 25 commercial banks from 10 countries, with varying size and specialties) used commercial and internal databases to assess the credit risk on rated and unrated commercial, retail and mortgage loans. 7. The BIS Risk-Based Capital Requirements Despite the importance of above six reasons, probably the greatest incentive for banks to develop new credit risk models has been dissatisfaction with the BIS and central banks post-1992 imposition of capital requirements on loans. The current BIS approach has been described as a ‘one size fits all policy, irrespective of the size of loan, its maturity, and most importantly, the credit quality of the borrowing party. Much of the current interest in fine tuning credit risk measurement models has been fueled by the proposed BIS New Capital Accord (or so Called BIS II) which would more closely link capital charges to the credit risk exposure to retail, commercial, sovereign and interbank credits. Chapter- 3 Credit Risk Approaches and Pricing 3.1 CREDIT RISK MEASUREMENT APPROACHES: 1. CREDIT SCORING MODELS Credit Scoring Models use data on observed borrower characteristics to calculate the probability of default or to sort borrowers into different default risk classes. By selecting and combining different economic and financial borrower characteristics, a bank manager may be able to numerically establish which factors are important in explaining default risk, evaluate the relative degree or importance of these factors, improve the pricing of default risk, be better able to screen out bad loan applicants and be in a better position to calculate any reserve needed to meet expected future loan losses. To employ credit scoring model in this manner, the manager must identify objective economic and financial measures of risk for any particular class of borrower. For consumer debt, the objective characteristics in a credit -scoring model might include income, assets, age occupation and location. For corporate debt, financial ratios such as debt-equity ratio are usually key factors. After data are identified, a statistical technique quantifies or scores the default risk probability or default risk classification. Credit scoring models include three broad types: (1) linear probability models, (2) logit model and (3) linear discriminant model. LINEAR PROBABILITY MODEL: The linear probability model uses past data, such as accounting ratios, as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans. The relative importance of the factors used in explaining the past repayment performance then forecasts repayment probabilities on new loans; that is can be used for assessing the probability of repayment. Briefly we divide old loans (i) into two observational groups; those that defaulted (Zi = 1) and those that did not default (Zi = 0). Then we relate these observations by linear regression to s set of j casual variables (Xij) that reflects quantative information about the ith borrower, such as leverage or earnings. We estimate the model by linear regression of: Zi = ÃŽ £ÃŽ ²jXij + error Where ÃŽ ²j is the estimated importance of the jth variable in explaining past repayment experience. If we then take these estimated ÃŽ ²js and multiply them by the observed Xij for a prospective borrower, we can derive an expected value of Zi for the probability of repayment on the loan. LOGIT MODEL: The objective of the typical credit or loan review model is to replicate judgments made by loan officers, credit managers or bank examiners. If an accurate model could be developed, then it could be used as a tool for reviewing and classifying future credit risks. Chesser (1974) developed a model to predict noncompliance with the customers original loan arrangement, where non-compliance is defined to include not only default but any workout that may have been arranged resulting in a settlement of the loan less favorable to the tender than the original agreement. Chessers model, which was based on a technique called logit analysis, consisted of the following six variables. X1 = (Cash + Marketable Securities)/Total Assets X2 = Net Sales/(Cash + Marketable Securities) X3 = EBIT/Total Assets X4 = Total Debt/Total Assets X5 = Total Assets/ Net Worth X6 = Working Capital/Net Sales The estimated coefficients, including an intercept term, are Y = -2.0434 -5.24X1 + 0.0053X2 6.6507X3 + 4.4009X4 0.0791X5 0.1020X6 Chessers classification rule for above equation is If P> 50, assign to the non compliance group and If P≠¤50, assign to the compliance group. LINEAR DISCRIMINANT MODEL: While linear probability and logit models project a value foe the expected probability of default if a loan is made, discriminant models divide borrowers into high or default risk classes contingent on their observed characteristic (X). Altmans Z-score model is an application of multivariate Discriminant analysis in credit risk modeling. Financial ratios measuring probability, liquidity and solvency appeared to have significant discriminating power to separate the firm that fails to service its debt from the firms that do not. These ratios are weighted to produce a measure (credit risk score) that can be used as a metric to differentiate the bad firms from the set of good ones. Discriminant analysis is a multivariate statistical technique that analyzes a set of variables in order to differentiate two or more groups by minimizing the within-group variance and maximizing the between group variance simultaneously. Variables taken were: X1::Working Capital/ Total Asset X2: Retained Earning/ Total Asset X3: Earning before interest and taxes/ Total Asset X4: Market value of equity/ Book value of total Liabilities X5: Sales/Total Asset The original Z-score model was revised and modified several times in order to find the scoring model more specific to a particular class of firm. These resulted in the private firms Z-score model, non manufacturers Z-score model and Emerging Market Scoring (EMS) model. 3.2 New Approaches TERM STRUCTURE DERIVATION OF CREDIT RISK: One market based method of assessing credit risk exposure and default probabilities is to analyze the risk premium inherent in the current structure of yields on corporate debt or loans to similar risk-rated borrowers. Rating agencies categorize corporate bond issuers into at least seven major classes according to perceived credit quality. The first four ratings AAA, AA, A and BBB indicate investment quality borrowers. MORTALITY RATE APPROACH: Rather than extracting expected default rates from the current term structure of interest rates, the FI manager may analyze the historic or past default experience the mortality rates, of bonds and loans of a similar quality. Here p1is the probability of a grade B bond surviving the first year of its issue; thus 1 p1 is the marginal mortality rate, or the probability of the bond or loan dying or defaulting in the first year while p2 is the probability of the loan surviving in the second year and that it has not defaulted in the first year, 1-p2 is the marginal mortality rate for the second year. Thus, for each grade of corporate buyer quality, a marginal mortality rate (MMR) curve can show the historical default rate in any specific quality class in each year after issue. RAROC MODELS: Based on a banks risk-bearing capacity and its risk strategy, it is thus necessary — bearing in mind the banks strategic orientation — to find a method for the efficient allocation of capital to the banks individual siness areas, i.e. to define indicators that are suitable for balancing risk and return in a sensible manner. Indicators fulfilling this requirement are often referred to as risk adjusted performance measures (RAPM). RARORAC (risk adjusted return on risk adjusted capital, usually abbreviated as the most commonly found forms are RORAC (return on risk adjusted capital), Net income is taken to mean income minus refinancing cost, operating cost, and expected losses. It should now be the banks goal to maximize a RAPM indicator for the bank as a whole, e.g. RORAC, taking into account the correlation between individual transactions. Certain constraints such as volume restrictions due to a potential lack of liquidity and the maintenance of solvency based on economic and regulatory capital have to be observed in reaching this goal. From an organizational point of view, value and risk management should therefore be linked as closely as possible at all organizational levels. OPTION MODELS OF DEFAULT RISK (kmv model): KMV Corporation has developed a credit risk model that uses information on the stock prices and the capital structure of the firm to estimate its default probability. The starting point of the model is the proposition that a firm will default only if its asset value falls below a certain level, which is function of its liability. It estimates the asset value of the firm and its asset volatility from the market value of equity and the debt structure in the option theoretic framework. The resultant probability is called Expected default Frequency (EDF). In summary, EDF is calculated in the following three steps: i) Estimation of asset value and volatility from the equity value and volatility of equity return. ii) Calculation of distance from default iii) Calculation of expected default frequency Credit METRICS: It provides a method for estimating the distribution of the value of the assets n a portfolio subject to change in the credit quality of individual borrower. A portfolio consists of different stand-alone assets, defined by a stream of future cash flows. Each asset has a distribution over the possible range of future rating class. Starting from its initial rating, an asset may end up in ay one of the possible rating categories. Each rating category has a different credit spread, which will be used to discount the future cash flows. Moreover, the assets are correlated among themselves depending on the industry they belong to. It is assumed that the asset returns are normally distributed and change in the asset returns causes the change in the rating category in future. Finally, the simulation technique is used to estimate the value distribution of the assets. A number of scenario are generated from a multivariate normal distribution, which is defined by the appropriate credit spread, t he future value of asset is estimated. CREDIT Risk+: CreditRisk+, introduced by Credit Suisse Financial Products (CSFP), is a model of default risk. Each asset has only two possible end-of-period states: default and non-default. In the event of default, the lender recovers a fixed proportion of the total expense. The default rate is considered as a continuous random variable. It does not try to estimate default correlation directly. Here, the default correlation is assumed to be determined by a set of risk factors. Conditional on these risk factors, default of each obligator follows a Bernoulli distribution. To get unconditional probability generating function for the number of defaults, it assumes that the risk factors are independently gamma distributed random variables. The final step in Creditrisk+ is to obtain the probability generating function for losses. Conditional on the number of default events, the losses are entirely determined by the exposure and recovery rate. Thus, the distribution of asset can be estimated from the fol lowing input data: i) Exposure of individual asset ii) Expected default rate iii) Default ate volatilities iv) Recovery rate given default 3.3 CREDIT PRICING Pricing of the credit is essential for the survival of enterprises relying on credit assets, because the benefits derived from extending credit should surpass the cost. With the introduction of capital adequacy norms, the credit risk is linked to the capital-minimum 8% capital adequacy. Consequently, higher capital is required to be deployed if more credit risks are underwritten. The decision (a) whether to maximize the returns on possible credit assets with the existing capital or (b) raise more capital to do more business invariably depends upon p

Analysis of Printed Advertisement

Analysis of Printed Advertisement In the printed advertisement by Maybelline New York, the makeup product advertised is targeted towards women. The advertised product, known as â€Å"The Eraser†, is to ensconce facial blemishes and wrinkles. Throughout the ad, one can find many target words and images that grasp the reader’s attention. These specific words, phrases, and images allow the reader to become conscious of their own flaws, therefore, attracting them to this product. The main attention grabbing word throughout this ad is â€Å"Eraser† the word eraser shows up numerous amounts of times within this ad.The word eraser is paired with many other words, for example, â€Å"Erase fine lines† or â€Å"Erase age spots†. These words target the needs of different individuals at once, although it may not even be beneficial to one, it still attracts the viewer in a well effective manner. The actual image itself plays a large role as well; the main image is of an attractive young-looking female. The female in this image has a beautiful complexion; there are no flaws on her face whatsoever. This image is obviously used to manipulate the minds of the audience into thinking that this is what they will look like after using this product.Another key phrase also used within this ad is â€Å"Instant Age Rewind†. Alone, these words are meaningless, but when placed together, it can create a deeper meaning. The interpretation of this â€Å"meaning† can differ for each individual, but most women take that phrase and interpret it as a product that will; make them look a lot younger INSTANTLY. When the fine print in this ad is read, which states, â€Å"Visual is a dramatization of actual product results†, one can truly realize that the ad is a hoax to manipulate individuals into purchasing this product.Unfortunately, no one really knows whether this advertisement is accurate before the purchase of the actual item. In the pri nted advertisement by L’Oreal Paris, the makeup product advertised is targeted towards women. The advertised product, known as â€Å"Visible Lift†, is to ensconce facial blemishes and flaws. Throughout the ad, one can find many target words and images that grasp the reader’s attention. These specific words, phrases, and images allow the reader to become conscious of their own flaws, therefore, attracting them to this product. The main attention-grabbing phrase throughout this ad is â€Å"Anti-Aging† the phrase nti-aging or any other term used to relate to age repeats numerous amounts of times within this ad. In this ad, there is a large image of a model known as â€Å"Andie MacDowell†. Andie’s face in this image has no age spots, wrinkles, or any flaws on her face. This image is once again, the ideal image most women desire, a face with no flaws or blemishes. The strategies the creator’s of this ad use is very manipulative, besides im ages, the ad also contains â€Å"5 Proven Benefits† this truly is the pinnacle of the ad which allows the viewer to believe that this product is the ultimate product.Although no one really has guaranteed that this product will definitely work, it still instills the image in one’s mind that this product will work miracles. Without any consideration or thought, one can easily determine that this product was â€Å"made for them†, correcting all of their facial problems. Which one cannot forget, this is all in â€Å"1 Luminous Makeup†. The parameters within this article do not really extend very far in trickery, but more manipulation of the mind. This ad makes itself look much more idealistic than what it really is.The celebrity endorsement also adds a little more to the manipulation by allowing one to think, â€Å"If a celebrity says its good, then it must be good†. This ad is well crafted to fool the audience into thinking this makeup product is suit able for the targeted audience, consisting of mostly mid-aged females. Within the two printed newspaper advertisements, both of the makeup product ads used wording and images to sell their products to the consumer minds. Although both of the advertisements used images and wording to attract customers, the strategies used within the wording and imaging drastically differs from one another.In the first advertisement from the Maybelline Company, the image and the words style differ form that of the L’Oreal Company. In the Maybelline ad, the word â€Å"eraser† is repeated many times on various parts of the ad. Whereas, on the L’Oreal ad, there are no repeating words or phrases. Both ads do contain an image of a woman with no facial blemishes or flaws, but the Maybelline image casts a woman whom looks much younger than the image of the L’Oreal ad. The Maybelline ad also strategically placed the words â€Å"Erase† on the parts of the face that wrinkle, h ave crow’s feet, and age spots.Directing the attention of the audience to those targeted areas. Lastly, the L’Oreal ad has a celebrity endorsement where model â€Å"Andie MacDowell† claims that this product â€Å"Take Years Off†. Whereas, in the Maybelline ad there id a disclaimer on the bottom stating that the actual results may vary from the ones on the photo of the visual. Overall, both ads use similar and varying techniques to convey to the audience that the product they are selling is worthwhile.Both ads to contain trickery, but the L’Oreal ad seems to have more trickery for not having any disclaimers in the fine print. The Maybelline ad has a better attention-grabbing style, when asked by random individuals, all of the individuals thought that the Maybelline product would be better for them. The marketing behind the Maybelline â€Å"Eraser† encompasses a much stronger attraction than L’Oreal’s â€Å"visible lift†. Revealing that portrayal has a large impact on the way individuals view a certain product.

Why Everybody Is Mistaken About Controversial Argument Essay Topics and Why You Absolutely Must View This Report Immediately

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